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@theMarket: The Market's Line in the Sand
By Bill Schmick,
02:31PM / Saturday, May 30, 2020
Over the last two weeks, as Americans returned to work, the stock market climbed rapidly. It has now reached, and breached, an important historical technical indicator. If it can remain above it, investors will begin to believe that the worst is over.      The S&P 500 Index (as opposed to the Dow Jones Industrial Average) is what most professionals consider the benchmark index. This week, buyers pushed that index above the 3,000 level for the first time since the pandemic caused the markets to crash back in March. Why is that important?   That is the level that coincides with what is called the Two Hundred Day Moving Average (200 DMA). The 200 DMA

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@theMarket: Memorial Day Markets
By Bill Schmick,
03:48PM / Friday, May 22, 2020
As we begin the Memorial Day weekend that usually launches the nation's summer season, investors are anxious to discover if Americans will ignore CDC warnings, and go back to their old ways of celebrating the holiday. And if they do, will new cases of COVID-19 spike?   The re-opening of much of America this week had been met with some celebratory gains in the stock market, but as I predicted, it has been an up and down week, despite the gain. The S&P 500 benchmark Index actually "kissed" 3,000 before falling back the following day. It was a first tentative probe of that level since the March declines.   However, if the S&P 500 Index can get

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@theMarket: Something Off in Bond Versus Stock Market Outlooks
By Bill Schmick,
05:34PM / Friday, May 15, 2020
Given the recent gains in the stock market over the last month or so, it is clear that stock market participants believe that the country will be back on its feet in no time. Over in the fixed income space, it is another story entirely. The question is which market will be right?   The betting in the bond market is that U.S. interest rates are not only going to zero, but there is a high probability that America, like Europe and Japan, will soon see negative rates, as early as next year. Six months ago, that was unthinkable.   On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a virtual speech at the Peterson Institute of International Economics. He said, "The

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@theMarket: The Stock Market Is Not the Economy
By Bill Schmick,
04:34PM / Friday, May 08, 2020
If ever one needed an example of the above saying, today's market would prove that point. Friday's unemployment figure for the month of April revealed that 20.3 million Americans are out of work, bringing the unemployment rate to 14.7 percent. The stock market gained more than one percent on the news.   While new cases of COVID-19 are reported and deaths multiply with no cure or vaccine in sight, the NASDAQ turned positive for the year. Corporate earnings have been abysmal and future guidance nonexistent for most companies, but their stocks went up anyway. How can this be, you might ask?   As I have said before, the stock market is a forward-looking

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@theMarket: Earnings Fail to Support Stock Market
By Bill Schmick,
04:14PM / Friday, May 01, 2020
Despite the expectation that earnings this quarter and next were going to be a disappointment, stocks have been gaining. That is because results have not been as low as some analysts have projected. However, when is better than bad not good enough for investors?   It appears we have found out this week. It is a known fact that mega-cap, technology companies (the FANG stocks) have been leading the market throughout this rebound. This week, several of these companies reported and while the results, in some cases, have been stellar, (given the overwhelming economic negatives in the economy), others were simply "acceptable."   Two of the largest market

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